Sunday, 14 April 2013

Monday 15th April

One horse that interests me is running tomorrow but I'm as yet undecided whether to have a financial interest. The horse in question is David Lanigans Portmonarch and it runs at one of my local tracks Windsor in the 16:20 race.
Based on the RP analysis of the race he doesn't appear to be that spectacular and they had this to say about the Galileo colt
"Portmonarch showed ability over this trip on soft turf on his second start and did so again. He might win an ordinary maiden, but he´s now qualified for a handicap mark and looks the type to progress given time."
Doesn't really get the juices flowing does it?
When we look a bit deeper though we find out that he is a $525,000 purchase as a yearling and the trainer gave him rave reviews (should think so at the price) in Steve Taplins book Two Year Olds of 2012. David had said that the horse was a very good looking and attractive horse but he was also very big and backward, September was the aim for him and he went on to run three time between then and October. All three runs were over a mile but he still looked very big and hadn't filled out his massive frame so it would be fair to say that he was still too weak to show justification in the hefty purchase price. The fact that he ran creditably in the last two runs without setting the world alight bodes well for the chances of him this year if he has indeed filled out his large frame and appreciates this step up in trip.
The thing that takes the eye this time is that he is stepped up to 10f tomorrow and being that Galileo has a big stamina influence he should be better suited to the trip than he was at a mile last year. The other thing that takes the eye is the fact that he is the only horse in the field with a Group 1 entry and has been entered into this years Derby and the Group 2 Dante Stakes in May. He will need a bold showing tomorrow to make either of those races and it certainly rubbishes the opinion of the RP analysis team that he "might win an ordinary maiden". I would suggest that if he is fit then he wins but I'll wait for prices to be advertised before I make a decision as to whether to play or not.

Of the rest of tomorrows card Arc Light could be interesting now back in handicap company after a decent showing in a recent maiden at an each way price (15:30 Newcastle).

At Windsor I think Solemn will outrun his 14/1 Odds currently with William Hill, he finished 3rd when returning to the track this time last year at the same course and looked the winner until being outpaced in the final furlong. The soft ground will do him no harm as his last win was on the same going at Sandown rated 1lb higher than now. So we are not asking the horse to do anything that it hasn't already done before and at the available odds I'll play to a small stake.

14:50 Windsor
Solemn 0.5pt EW 14/1 WH, 12/1 VC

Good luck.

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