Friday, 19 April 2013

20th April

Ayasha certainly outrun her odds at Ripon, she looks like the one to take from the race as she has now proved that she can hold her own at this level on turf, I think if they can find her a fillies handicap somewhere she is a winner in waiting, only a neck as the difference between making a profit on the race and losing our the stake but I hope the ones that do go in far outweigh the ones we are unlucky on like yesterday, the result could actually be interpreted as better than the bare result as she was 2nd in her group on the far side. I'll keep an eye out for her.

Looking at Saturday I find it most strange that George Baker is trying Aqua Ardens at 5f when he was tried at 8f last time out and eased home in what looks like an attempt to reduce the OR. He was rated 77 on his handicap debut but that mark looked very stiff and has since dropped to 62 which now looks workable as he now qualifies for a 0-65 for the first time on turf. He showed promise two starts back when 3rd at Lingfield when returning from a break and is not fully exposed. 16/1 looks big and as it stands 4 places will be paid out, a tongue tie is applied for the first time which is promising as he could improve for it. He is bred for further but he is not a horse that struggles for speed. He likes to race up with the pace and as there are a couple who like to race from the front in this his stamina could come in to play.
I could be completely wrong but I'll take the chance at what looks like a decent price for a horse that placed in the only 0-65 contest he has raced.

18:00 Nottingham
Aqua Ardens 0.75pt EW 16/1

In the 17:45 Thirsk Azzura Du Caprio is interesting returning from a break, she won returning from a break last year and finished 3rd on her debut as a 2yo so it is safe to assume that she goes well fresh (!) now rated 75 she is 8lbs lower than her last win and faces the lowest grade competition she has ever faced. On the face of it 20/1 looks massive but we have to hope she is fit. She is better than this.

17:45 Thirsk
Azurra Du Caprio 0.5pt EW 20/1

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