Wednesday, 17 April 2013

18th April

Cracking days racing today but I missed all of it in favour of watching Thomas the tank engine (!)

By the sounds of it Hot Snap was most impressive at Newmarket coming from last to first to win in a decent time, be interesting to see his topspeed rating after that, he is now 8/1 for the 1,000 Guineas. I have all racing recorded and look forward to seeing Cheltenham highlights as I backed the Venitia Williams trained Lower Hope Dandy at 16/1 after noting her goo performance in this meeting in recent years although last year she had none turn out, made my day even at the small stake I played!

Portmonarch ran a shocker on Monday but was easy to back all morning, an early price of 3/1 was too much for me to resist and it eventually started at 11/8 and showed nothing to justify that price. The application of cheek pieces was a slight worry and also the fact that the trainer had said the horse could be a little lazy but it would have proved a good trading opportunity if anyone would have got on at that early price as it was clear to see withing 30 mins of the early show that he would be backed all day. I imagine that he will run a big race at some point this year but entries to the Dante and Derby look a little far fetched to say the least at this point. He may strengthen up this summer but there were no real reasons for him to run such a poor race in what looks like being an ordinary maiden.

There was nibble at Solemn just before the off but he too ran another shocking race, probably wasn't fit or is just a shit horse?! He took the race from the front last year but I could see straight away that this wasn't going to be his race after a slowish start covered up by the entire field (!) He will obviously drop another couple of lbs for that run but like most low class handicappers is proving difficult to read, if and when Liam Keniry is back on board then he may be worth another chance as his last 5 wins have come with him in the saddle.

On to Thursday then...

17:05 Ripon
Aysha 0.5pt EW 14/1

Aysha can be forgiven for the last run after being hampered badly and actually did quite well in the circumstances to make up as much ground as she did, over the winter she has been unlucky a couple of times in fact after being hampered in running and had been noted as one that could win on the AW but due to the problems noted above that never materialised. She was rated at 70 last season on turf after a good all the way win in a Redcar maiden, the RPR that she has received definitely suggest that she will be up to winning off the current mark of 66 and she is drawn well also, I think she will outrun her odds in this.

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