Sunday, 22 April 2012

23rd April

Good evening everyone,
It has been over a week since my last blog post which highlighted a very good winner at 10/1 which happened to drift from the opening price that bet365 had listed the evening before. I hope that some of you were on and at BOG! I'm really pleased with how the last couple of selections have run and how easy it had been to find them. The week just gone looks to have been difficult and although I have been away I've still managed to keep my eye in.
At first I was rather frustrated at a couple of results that I noticed during the week as two of the horses that I have highlighted on the blog previously have scooted home, both at 14/1, they were Fast Shot on Thursday and Veiled Applause yesterday. I had a look at the respective races they won and I definitely would have swerved Fast Shot but perhaps had a play on Veiled Applause but there was no way I was going to look at any racing yesterday so that was always going to be missed from the account!

It seems like a lot of racing services are struggling at the moment and April can be a pretty dodgy month for reasons such as unfit horses and bad weather so I'm quite happy with the way things have panned out from a selfish point of view as I've missed what has looked like a very tough week as weather has played havoc with the cards this week just gone. I'm not too sure why the so called 'professionals' have decided to tip so much recently given the uphill battle they've been dealt but I hope they can all turn it around soon and that you guys who follow these paid for services have not done too much damage to your betting banks.

Anyway, I'm hoping to be back posting regularly again now after my unforeseen absence and hope that I can pick up where I left off starting with tomorrow...

16:45 Pontefract
Chosen Character ran really well without his usual headgear at Catterick last time and shaped as if a return to a mile would suit. Tomorrow he gets a return of the headgear and the mile he looked to need last time, Ricard Kingscote returns to the saddle which is a positive as he has piloted both the horses career wins to date one of which was over C&D. Since his 3yo days he has fell to a more workable mark of 74 after placing from a career high of 82 in a much better race than this at Chester. The ground should be no problem to him as he has form on soft at the aforementioned Chester race and his race last time at Catterick. He is not the most original of selections but he has too much in his favour to overlook I think and is worth a small play.

Chosen Character 0.75pt Win 9/2 B365 (BOG)

Also at Ponte Hidden Glory is one to look out form tomorrow running in the apprentice, as things look to suit this horse tomorrow and he is no doubt well handicapped now but his last few runs have put me off. He won at Nottingham last year in similar circumstances racing off the same mark. If he shows any kind of return to form tomorrow then he will be of interest next time. I hope he travels well but finds little to finish 4th or 5th and then we will get a better price on him next time and the handicapper will help us more ;) It is possible that the return to turf might just do the trick and be enough to revive him tomorrow but I don't fancy chancing it at the current 5/1.

17:55 Windsor
Desert Strike was very unlucky not to finish much closer than his 6/14 last time at the course over a furlong shorter, he dwelt in rear and found some trouble but still made ground and stayed on really well. That race was a 0-85 contest and he is dropped in class to a 0-75 here facing the similar conditions. Daryl Holland has been booked for the ride which is eye catching so I doubt he will be allowed to dwell in the rear again (!) plus the normal fixture of cheek pieces return which haven been present for all his wins so far but missing for the last 3 runs. He is one of only 2 course winners in this field which could matter a great deal tomorrow so I'm not bothered about the racing post comment about him only winning 1 from 30 odd attempts on turf as he has shown a clear liking for the track. The ground will more than likely be soft and I don't have any issue with that really as although he has never been tried on this going he does like it at Wolverhampton which is as close as it gets to soft going really, I think it will play into his hands actually as he tends to stay on well in most of his races and looks set to give a good account again tomorrow with the extra furlong.

Desert Strike 0.5pt EW 10/1 B365 (BOG)

Good luck with any other bets.


  1. Hi Matt good to hear from you again ;)

    1. Hi Fabian, many thanks for the comment :)
      I'm sure you'll be even happier to see me back after I get a couple to win!

  2. Hi Matt,
    I’ve only had chance to look at the Windsor race – and what a tricky little race it is too !!
    My biggest issue with it is the uncertainty over the state of the ground - and linked to this, the potential impact of the draw. These 2 big imponderables, would make me nervous about going in heavy on anything in the race…
    WRT Desert Strike, I can see where you are coming from – and agree that it has a fair chance. The main issue for me, is its ability to handle soft ground.
    It’s run a lot of times (!) and yet only twice, when the words ‘soft’ or ‘heavy’ appear in the going description. That in itself concerns me – particularly when neither those performances were particularly good.
    He has run with some credit on the AW at Southwell, which has some similar characteristic to soft going – so that gives you hope. However, the lingering doubt remains…
    Similarly, the draw is a worry – even for a hold up horse. Conventionally, it is best to be draw high at Windsor – unless it is very soft, in which case low is the best.
    Desert Strike is drawn 7, which is kind of no-mans land. Whilst it shouldn’t be insurmountable whichever way the race pans out, it’s not an advantage either…
    In summary, as a horse, I like it: as a race, I don’t (and that’s before the mandatory withdrawal, reducing the field size from 16 to 15 and hence the place terms from 4 to 3 – plus a 10% deduction !!).
    FWIW, I’ve had a small play on the outsider of the field, Local Singer.
    He is potentially well drawn and has decent form both on soft and at the course. He is tumbling down the handicap (due to recent poor runs) but has a tongue tied applied for the first time. He could easily bomb again today – but if he does stage a revival, conditions and his handicap mark, suggest he could go close…

    1. Hi Andrew, thanks for the comment :)
      I make you right that it is a difficult race and I seem to have a knack for tipping in them but I've factored that into my staking I think. On reflection I may have the wrong day here but I do think it has a win in him on turf soon and although there is a doubt about the ground I don't personally think much has been given away as one of the runs he missed the break and the run at Haydock I'm not sure that he is suited to its galloping track. I've had a look at Local Singer and I can see what you're saying but the way that he appeared to stop last time after halfway puts me off somewhat and maybe the tongue tie is being tried as they don't know what went wrong? either way I guess you are being compensated with the price. Whatever happens today I hope to get a run for my money :)
      Actually just seen it has been withdrawn anyway so it looks like you'll have to cheer mine home lol