Good evening, it has been a quiet couple of days with only all weather racing on Wednesday and small fields at Folkstone not of much interest to me. Good Friday is anything but in my opinion as there is no racing at all :(
So it appears I will be returning on Saturday morning if I have any bets.
I think it is fair to say that I have not exactly got in to the groove of things as yet but as the days pass and I keep looking and more bets should follow. I have been guilty of trying to force things so far which has seen me pick a few poor bets and if not for the win of Arizona John last week would have been a disaster. The reason for this as briefly mentioned above, in my opinion, is that due to time restraints I have been trying to find bets that are simply not there for the method I use. If you can imagine going through a list of 16 handicappers, spending over an hour on one race alone and then deciding that actually there are too many with a chance with no stand out prices for those you fancy it is easy to see that as time wasted and it can be demoralising. It takes a much stronger character than mine to overlook a race on such occasions! I tend to learn from my mistakes though, there have been far too many to mention over the last couple of weeks but at least they are all fresh in the mind so I can avoid doing the same things again.
I have been through tomorrows card at Folkstone and I couldn't find anything at a suitable price that would interest me for a bet. The ones I was interested in are Drawnfromthepast and Scarlett Rocks in the 15:40 - Drawnfromthepast was successful from a 10lb higher mark at Bath last year and has won 3 of his last 5 races in claimers. I think he is a better horse on turf and also thought that his last run was a better performance than the placings suggest as the winner was allowed an easy lead and Drawnfromthepast given no chance by the way the race shaped despite staying on. I do have a slight doubt as to his suitability for the course though as he doesn't seem to go well on sharp right handed tracks like Folkstone and the 7/2 on offer doesn't whet the appetite much.
Scarlett Rocks is now interesting as he returns to his old trainer. He was claimed from David Evans yard and campaigned on the AW but never really took to it. His turf form is much better and he could be allowed to lead here which would see his IR odds tumble. At 8/1 he makes limited appeal to me returning from a break and I'd rather not guess on her fitness.
Anyway that's all for now, good luck if you're punting and enjoy the break from betting for what it is on Friday :)
Hi Matt,
ReplyDeleteI don’t think you should be too down about the way things have gone so far. It will inevitably take a little while for you to get back into the groove….
You are right that you don’t want to be forcing bets – and I know it can be frustrating to spend a long time on a race and not come up with an angle !
The answer is probably a half-way house (similar to what you’ve posted today). Your analysis will have reached some conclusions, so just publish those – you don’t need to have an ‘official’ bet.
If you go through that process, you will still derive benefit from it. Recording your conclusions will help to sharpen your mind without the pain associated with actually losing ! You will also doubtless find one or two that could be bets, if the price was right. Again, you should record these.
Remember, you’ve got a whole season in front of you – pace yourself accordingly ;)
A.
Hi Matt,
ReplyDeleteIt does take a while to adjust to writing posts and feeling as though people are expecting ABC...but I have always followed my own path and with regard to bets you are best to stick to what feels right for you. If you start to force the issue you can lose track of what you are all about and become even more frustrated. I found your post insightful and interesting so as long as every post comes from that inner voice you won't go far wrong. In lots of ways a blog is just as much about you as a person and not just your bests. You will be just fine.
Kind regards,
Jason