Ok so I have left it a little while before posting again but this is sort of going to become a diary to me and so it doesn't matter too much as to start with I won't have too many fans anyway!
I have kept my own betting to a minimum since I started this blog and now that the flat is around the corner I expect opportunities to be more and activity on this new blog more too.
A little bit about my selection method tonight and what it involves.
When looking for value it is easier for me to look for a horse very briefly at first and studying further if I find something interesting, that invariably means that I don't spend an awful amount of time looking at any one race as I'm not looking at all the runners in as much depth as the ones that I find interesting, in my opinion it only takes a moment or two to decide whether one is worthy of more attention and thus very easy to put a line through ones chances ;)
Doing things the way I do means that I get a chance to look at more races and hopefully spot more mistakes, it is imperative that I get to look at more than a couple of races a night as it doesn't take long for an early market to adjust.
I use a few methods to narrow down a field to a more manageable level but the main method I use is to look for a pattern in these nags form as they are creatures of habit after all. I do occasionally get it wrong but more often than not you can be confident in your reasoning, as an example it is very rare for a horse to run well after a break if historically it has ran poorly when doing so, although possibly exceptions may be when a horse changes trainer or if a race is really very poor! As I'm generally only interested in all age handicaps most of these horses are exposed so I have a lot of info available to me already and a number of proven methods of how to use. That for me makes it the best betting medium as you leave little to chance whereas in other races you may have to rely more on luck than judgement.
I'll cover more on this each night when I make my selections and how I got there. I won't always be right but I'll hopefully get enough correct to compensate for the losses.
The first race that I have looked at tonight has thrown up a selection that runs tomorrow evening!
The horse in question is Compton Target, yes the race is limited to 3 year olds but when you look at this it was not difficult to find. The horse won at Kempton from a mark of 70 on its handicap debut last year, since then it has gone backwards and now finds itself on a mark of 61 returning from a break and also has a claimer on his back taking away another 7lbs. Providing that the break has done it some good this could run a very decent race and at a working mans price too. Whatever happens tomorrow it will be worth keeping an eye on it especially when a stronger jockey is on board. For me though the price is simply too big for a horse who is well drawn and ridiculously well handicapped so I make it a bet.
17:55 Kempton
Compton Target 0.75pt EW 12/1 B365
Another horse who might be shedding his maiden tag soon is Sailing North who runs in the 20:25 at Kempton tomorrow night, indeed he is drawn well tomorrow night and is wearing blinkers for the first time. I can't see this one attracting much money though so I'll hold off until more bookies have priced up before deciding whether to fire a bet.
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